Michael Rubin, a well-known expert on Iran and a leading researcher at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, says the reported terms of the Iran-China strategic agreement pose a "significant risk" to Ali Khamenei and his subordinates. "Any agreement between the Iranian and Chinese governments to allow long-term lease of Iranian territory would provoke public outrage in Iran and much of the political spectrum".
Rubin wrote in an analysis published in National Interest magazine on Monday. "It will be a country." According to Mr. Rubin, not only ordinary Iranians but also Iranian officials are currently concerned about whether the benefits of an agreement with China outweigh the risks to Iran's national sovereignty.
"Every time the Iranian government unites with a new power to confront its dissatisfaction with a previous one, the result is bad for the Iranian people," he wrote. "Khamenei may not see this, but ordinary Iranians do." Rubin also warns of the negative consequences of a proposed deal for Iran in the event of a rush to sign it.
"If Khamenei and President [Iran] Hassan Rouhani, before Khamenei's death - a death that may be accompanied by a struggle for succession, widespread anti-regime protests, and even a change in the attitude of many Iranians to the West," Rubin writes. "If they reach a long-term agreement with China, then a more aggressive Beijing may simultaneously try to pursue its interests militarily or use debt traps to undermine the reconstruction of post-Khamenei Iran." Ruben, meanwhile, does not rule out the possibility of Chinese "internal intervention" "in Iran."
Rubin writes that such a scenario "may be a problem for the future US administration, but it will be another disaster for the Iranian people - the people who wish to be free and left to their own devices." Ruben emphasizes that "any agreement with China in the long run will cause Iran to regret."
